Product Not Received Chargebacks: Win Rates, Evidence & Freeze Risk

Product not received is the most common non-fraud chargeback reason. Success depends entirely on delivery proof and timing—not effort or good intentions. This dispute type carries high freeze risk when shipping delays create clusters.

What “Product Not Received” Means

This dispute occurs when:

A cardholder claims an item never arrived at their address
The customer expected delivery by a certain date and it didn’t arrive
The package was delivered to the wrong address or stolen after delivery
Tracking shows “delivered” but the customer genuinely didn’t receive it

Key distinction: This is NOT fraud. The customer authorized the purchase but claims non-delivery.

Common Triggers

Delayed shipments beyond promised delivery dates
Missing tracking numbers or carriers without scan confirmation
Porch piracy (package stolen after delivery)
Wrong address delivery due to customer error or carrier mistake
Untracked shipping methods (e.g., standard mail without confirmation)

How Banks Evaluate These Claims

Issuers treat “product not received” as time-sensitive delivery failures. Their decision process:

Tracking evidence: Does tracking show delivery to the correct address?
Delivery confirmation: Was a signature or photo captured?
Timing: Was delivery within the promised timeframe?
Carrier credibility: Is this a recognized carrier with reliable scans?

Default position: Banks side with cardholders unless you provide clear carrier proof of delivery to the billing or shipping address.

Win Likelihood: Medium (40-60%)

Win probability: Medium

Your odds depend entirely on delivery documentation quality:

Evidence That Wins

✅ Carrier tracking showing “delivered” with scan timestamp
✅ Signature confirmation (required for high-value items over $250)
✅ Delivery photo from carrier (Amazon, UPS, FedEx photo proof)
✅ GPS coordinates of delivery location matching customer address
✅ Delivery to verified address matching billing or customer-provided shipping
✅ Customer communication acknowledging receipt or asking product questions post-delivery

Evidence That Rarely Works

❌ “Shipped” status without delivery confirmation
❌ Tracking showing “in transit” or “out for delivery”
❌ Proof of handoff to carrier without final delivery scan
❌ Delivery to a different address than customer provided
❌ Generic “we always ship on time” statements
❌ Refund offers made after the dispute was filed

Freeze Risk Assessment: High

Freeze risk: High

Why “product not received” disputes are dangerous:

Velocity clustering: 3-5 shipping-related disputes in 30 days triggers Stripe monitoring
Pattern recognition: Systematic delays signal operational issues, not isolated incidents
Preventable nature: Stripe views these as merchant-controllable, unlike fraud
Customer experience signal: High rates indicate poor fulfillment processes

Critical thresholds:

2-3 disputes in 30 days: Monitoring begins
5+ disputes in 60 days: Reserve or hold likely
Dispute rate above 0.75%: Account freeze risk escalates

Even if you win these disputes, the velocity alone can trigger holds.

Prevention: Stop Disputes Before They Happen

Shipping Best Practices

Use trackable shipping for all orders (USPS with tracking minimum)
Require signature for orders over $250
Ship within promised timeframes or proactively notify of delays
Provide tracking immediately via email and customer portal
Use photo delivery services (UPS My Choice, Amazon Delivery Photos)
Validate addresses at checkout using address verification tools

Communication Strategies

Set realistic delivery expectations at checkout (add buffer days)
Send shipping notifications with tracking links immediately
Proactive delay alerts: Email customers if shipment is delayed
Delivery confirmation emails: “Your package was delivered” notifications
Easy tracking access: Customer portal or order status page

Operational Safeguards

Address validation at checkout: Flag mismatched billing/shipping addresses
Carrier selection: Use carriers with reliable tracking (UPS, FedEx, USPS Priority)
Insurance for high-value items: Protects against loss and provides carrier accountability
Fulfillment SLAs: Monitor and enforce shipping time commitments

Clear Verdict: When to Fight vs. Refund

Fight Only If You Have:

✅ Carrier tracking showing “delivered” to correct address
✅ Signature or photo confirmation of delivery
✅ Delivery within promised timeframe
✅ GPS data matching customer location
✅ Low current dispute rate (less than 0.5%)

Refund Immediately If:

❌ No tracking or only “shipped” status
❌ Delivery delayed beyond promised date
❌ Tracking shows delivery to wrong address
❌ Carrier is unreliable or unrecognized
❌ Already elevated dispute rate (greater than 0.75%)
❌ Multiple shipping disputes in past 30 days

Strategic refund: If you’re near freeze thresholds, refunding weak delivery cases before they become disputes saves your account. The $15 dispute fee + chargeback fee is cheaper than a reserve.

Response Timeline

You have 7-21 days to respond with evidence. Missing the deadline = automatic loss.

Action plan:

Day 1: Pull tracking and delivery confirmation immediately
Day 1-2: Contact carrier for additional proof (signature, photo, GPS)
Day 2-3: Review customer communications for receipt acknowledgment
Day 3-5: Build evidence package with timeline
Day 5-7: Submit via Stripe Dashboard

What to Submit If Fighting

Your evidence package should include:

Tracking details: Full tracking history with “delivered” scan
Delivery confirmation: Signature, photo, or GPS coordinates
Shipping label: Showing correct address and service level
Customer order: Confirming shipping address customer provided
Communication logs: Any post-delivery messages from customer
Carrier statement: Official confirmation from carrier if available

Format: PDF with clear sections. Lead with tracking screenshot showing “delivered” status. Make it obvious the package reached the customer.

For Digital Products

If you sell digital goods or services, “product not received” disputes require different evidence:

✅ Download logs: Timestamps showing customer downloaded files
✅ Account activity: Login history, usage data, feature access
✅ IP address match: Transaction IP matching account usage IP
✅ Email delivery: Confirmation emails with access credentials
✅ Service completion: Appointment records, session logs, work completion

Assess Your Dispute Risk (30 seconds)